Speaker: Madison Hollaway, Low Emissions And Sustainability Lead, Liberty Energy
Title: Evaluating the Transition to Natural Gas-Powered Equipment in Hydraulic Fracturing: Challenges, Benefits, and Feasibility Analysis.

Abstract:

The transition to natural gas as a primary fuel source in hydraulic fracturing
operations launched in 2013 with the introduction of dual fuel engines,
which use a blend of diesel and natural gas. This transition remains
ongoing, marked by two fundamentally different approaches to displacing
diesel with natural gas. Initially, dual fuel engines emerged as the
pioneering technology for substituting diesel with natural gas on hydraulic
fracturing jobs. These engines are still being used and improved upon
today. Subsequently, circa 2018, companies began developing and
deploying 100% natural gas-powered generation systems to drive
electrically powered hydraulic fracturing equipment.
Historically, gas powered generation has been found exclusively in
stationary applications. Adapting this technology to a mobile package for
hydraulic fracturing operations has been a formidable industry-wide
challenge. Unlike stationary setups, mobile deployment necessitates
considerations of weight, ambient outdoor conditions, and the reliability of
the natural gas supply. Prior to equipment construction, weight
optimization is imperative, as off-road mobile units are subject to state-
specific road weight restrictions. Compliance with axle, king pin, and total
weight limits is mandatory for roadworthiness. Moreover, the lack of control
over outdoor ambient conditions further complicates mobile deployment.
Unlike ambient conditions, natural gas supply is within control of the
operator, though it cannot be preemptively resolved like weight
considerations. Post-deployment, natural gas quality and supply often
emerge as predominant challenges, highlighting their significance in mobile
gas-powered generation for hydraulic fracturing operations.

The balance of transitioning to natural gas fueled engines, while the natural
gas infrastructure catches up, has been both delicate and complex. Diesel
has been used as a fuel source for over 70 years in the industry and thus
has firmly established a robust supply chain. In contrast, the Compressed
Natural Gas (CNG) supply chain is in the early stages of development and
has consistently served as a bottleneck for deploying natural gas
technologies. However, there is a prevailing belief that the inherent benefits
of natural gas will act as a catalyst for the evolution of the CNG supply
chain in the years to come.
Considering the ongoing challenges, it is imperative to evaluate the true
benefits of this transition. Assessing whether the opportunity cost
outweighs the hurdles encountered, both presently and in the foreseeable
future, is crucial. This paper aims to address this critical question by
leveraging empirical data collected during the initial stages of our
organization’s natural gas transition. Through a comprehensive analysis, we
examine the tangible advantages and potential drawbacks of embracing
natural gas technology, providing insights into the feasibility and
implications of this transition for the hydraulic fracturing industry. In this
analysis we will focus on Tier IV Dual Fuel engines, Gas Reciprocating
Generators which produce electricity to drive electric frac pumps, and Gas
Reciprocating Engines that mechanically drive the hydraulic pump. The
baseline for comparison is established using Tier II Diesel engines. Each
technology will be evaluated based on multiple criteria including emissions,
cost savings found in both fuel purchases and operating costs, and overall
operational considerations. Through a combination of Original Engine
Manufacturer (OEM) data and empirical data, this paper provides valuable
insights into the efficacy and feasibility of transitioning to natural gas-
burning equipment in the context of hydraulic fracturing operations.

Bio:

Madison Hollaway is the Low Emissions And Sustainability Lead at Liberty
Energy. Madison has held a variety of positions throughout her career in the
oil and gas industry, with experience spanning from engineering and project
management to research and development. Madison holds a Bachelor of
Engineering in Petroleum Engineering from Texas A&M University.

Register Here

Event description

Good morning SPE volunteering team!

Our next monthly breakfast at the Rescue Mission will be November 18th, from 6:45am to 8:30am. This is a great way to meet new people within the industry, help the Denver community, and jump-start your Tuesday morning!

Please try to RSVP if you are planning on attending.

If you have any questions or want some more details, please reach out to me by email or at 303-257-6091. For general info from the Rescue Mission, please see below.Main important number to have if you are parking in the gated lot is 303-297-5071. They will open the gate when you call.

A few instructions about volunteering:

Address: 2222 Lawrence Street, Denver CO 80205

Parking:                                                                                                                                         

Preferred: We have a private gated parking lot for volunteers and staff. It is on the right side of Lawrence street, with a black metal fence and large sign marked, “Emergency Rally Point”. If there are open parking spots and the gate is closed for security, you may pull up to the gate, call 303-297-5071 and press 1 to have staff open the gate remotely. This lot has been expanded recently, so there are typically a number of open parking spots.
Second option: There is a public pay lot across Lawrence Street where we have rented some spots for staff and volunteers to park for FREE, on a first come first served basis, with signs that are marked, “Denver Rescue Mission Staff Only”. If you park in the lot and don’t get a free spot, then please pay the posted price. We are unable to reimburse volunteers for parking.
Third option: There is also street parking in the neighborhood (metered, 2-hour, etc.) and other public pay lots. We are unable to reimburse volunteers for parking or parking tickets.

Facility Entry:

Preferred: Walk through our gated lot, toward the back of the building, to the white sign marked “Volunteer Entrance”, and ring the bell for entry.
Second option: Walk to the main entrance on Lawrence Street. Front desk staff will escort you through to the Volunteer Room.
Check-in: Upon arrival to the Volunteer Room, please be sure to sign in at the kiosk tablet. If you are with a group, only one member needs to sign-in for the group. This is essential for us to highlight volunteer contribution and impact. After signing in, you will watch our safety video to bring you up to speed on everything you need to know for your volunteer shift.
Dress Code: Please dress in a manner that is modest and appropriate for meal service and kitchen work. Please refrain from wearing opened toe shoes, tank-tops, midriff tops, short shorts, and any clothing that is: tight, low-cut, or has controversial imprints. If you are dressed inappropriately, you will be asked to reschedule. Do not wear dangly or loose jewelry, especially earrings or bracelets. Tip: If you wear a hat (and a pony tail for long hair), you will not be required to wear a hairnet.
Minimum Age: This opportunity has a minimum age of 14 years old for safety reasons. Anyone under 18 needs an adult chaperone.  Please do not bring family members or guests who are under 14.
Incidents: Please report immediately to a staff member any injuries, inappropriate behavior, or anything that makes you uncomfortable. Please be aware that many of our guests and program participants come from difficult life situations.
Please know that we appreciate your time and energy. Thank you for serving our community members who are experiencing homelessness.

General Meeting Category: Reservoir

Speaker: Reidar Bratvold, Professor Emeritus, University of Stavanger

Title: Persistent Bias in Probabilistic Production Forecasting and Simple Methods to Overcome It

Abstract:

The one key idea I would like the members to take away: Unbiased probabilistic production forecasts are a crucial component in making good investment decisions — but typical ways of producing them result in persistent, value-destroying biases. There are quick and easy ways to make accurate, unbiased forecasts.

Increased awareness of uncertainty, combined with increasingly sophisticated tools and models for quantifying it, is causing a shift from deterministic to probabilistic production forecasting. For these forecasts to lead to better investment decisions (e.g. assessing how much it’s worth paying to reduce uncertainty, or incorporating flexibility to manage it), they need to be an accurate (unbiased) representation of the uncertainty. However, our industry has a general history of overconfidence (ranges too narrow) and, more damaging for value-creation, optimism (consistent over-estimation).

A large dataset of historical probabilistic production forecasts was investigated for potential bias by comparing them with actual outcomes. They were found to be both optimistic and overconfident, bringing into question their usefulness for decision-making and the value of the sophisticated uncertainty modeling techniques that were used to generate them.

Fortunately, there are quick and easy methods for creating accurate probabilistic forecasts. We describe these and show that they would have produced accurate forecasts for our case study fields (they do not make use of knowing the actual outcomes!).

Finally, preliminary results from a similar analysis of renewables projects indicate that the same problems exist. This could significantly impact investment decisions and policy development in renewable projects by governments and companies.

Bio:

Reidar B. Bratvold is Professor (emeritus) of Decision & Data Analytics at the University of Stavanger, where he teaches and supervises graduate students in decision and data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, project valuation, portfolio analysis, real-option valuation, and the behavioral challenges of decision-making. Before joining academia, Reidar spent 15 years in industry in various technical and leadership roles, including Vice President at Landmark Graphics Corporation (a Halliburton company) in Houston; Managing Director of Smedvig Technology Software Solutions (now Roxar); Senior Scientist with IBM; and Reservoir Engineer with Statoil. He began his career offshore as a roughneck and roustabout in the North Sea.

Reidar is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and delivers in-house short courses on decision-making and economic evaluation. He is one of only four individuals to have served as a Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Distinguished Lecturer four times:

• Uncertainty Assessment and Risk Management in Reservoir Optimization (1998–1999)

• Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One? (2003–2004)

• Creating Value from Uncertainty and Flexibility (2016–2017)

• Persistent Bias in Probabilistic Production Forecasting and Simple Methods to Overcome It

He has published extensively on topics such as decision-making, the value of information, the application of machine learning and AI to support decisions, Bayesian evidence learning, stochastic reservoir modeling, fuzzy logic, data assimilation, and reservoir management. He is co-author of the SPE book Making Good Decisions, commissioned by the SPE.

Reidar was the 2017 recipient of the SPE Management & Information Award, has served as Executive Editor for SPE Economics & Management, and in 2024 was selected as Energy Professional of the Year by the SPE Stavanger Chapter. He is a Fellow of both the Society of Decision Professionals and the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences, and a Founding Member of the Friends of SDP initiative.

He holds a PhD in engineering and an MSc in mathematics from Stanford University and has completed executive education in business and management science at INSEAD, MIT, and Stanford

Register Here

Good morning SPE volunteering team!

Our next monthly breakfast at the Rescue Mission will be December 16th, from 6:45am to 8:30am. This is a great way to meet new people within the industry, help the Denver community, and jump-start your Tuesday morning!

Please try to RSVP if you are planning on attending.

If you have any questions or want some more details, please reach out to me by email or at 303-257-6091. For general info from the Rescue Mission, please see below.Main important number to have if you are parking in the gated lot is 303-297-5071. They will open the gate when you call.

A few instructions about volunteering:

Address: 2222 Lawrence Street, Denver CO 80205

Parking:                                                                                                                                         

Preferred: We have a private gated parking lot for volunteers and staff. It is on the right side of Lawrence street, with a black metal fence and large sign marked, “Emergency Rally Point”. If there are open parking spots and the gate is closed for security, you may pull up to the gate, call 303-297-5071 and press 1 to have staff open the gate remotely. This lot has been expanded recently, so there are typically a number of open parking spots.
Second option: There is a public pay lot across Lawrence Street where we have rented some spots for staff and volunteers to park for FREE, on a first come first served basis, with signs that are marked, “Denver Rescue Mission Staff Only”. If you park in the lot and don’t get a free spot, then please pay the posted price. We are unable to reimburse volunteers for parking.
Third option: There is also street parking in the neighborhood (metered, 2-hour, etc.) and other public pay lots. We are unable to reimburse volunteers for parking or parking tickets.

Facility Entry:

Preferred: Walk through our gated lot, toward the back of the building, to the white sign marked “Volunteer Entrance”, and ring the bell for entry.
Second option: Walk to the main entrance on Lawrence Street. Front desk staff will escort you through to the Volunteer Room.
Check-in: Upon arrival to the Volunteer Room, please be sure to sign in at the kiosk tablet. If you are with a group, only one member needs to sign-in for the group. This is essential for us to highlight volunteer contribution and impact. After signing in, you will watch our safety video to bring you up to speed on everything you need to know for your volunteer shift.
Dress Code: Please dress in a manner that is modest and appropriate for meal service and kitchen work. Please refrain from wearing opened toe shoes, tank-tops, midriff tops, short shorts, and any clothing that is: tight, low-cut, or has controversial imprints. If you are dressed inappropriately, you will be asked to reschedule. Do not wear dangly or loose jewelry, especially earrings or bracelets. Tip: If you wear a hat (and a pony tail for long hair), you will not be required to wear a hairnet.
Minimum Age: This opportunity has a minimum age of 14 years old for safety reasons. Anyone under 18 needs an adult chaperone.  Please do not bring family members or guests who are under 14.
Incidents: Please report immediately to a staff member any injuries, inappropriate behavior, or anything that makes you uncomfortable. Please be aware that many of our guests and program participants come from difficult life situations.
Please know that we appreciate your time and energy. Thank you for serving our community members who are experiencing homelessness.