When: Wednesday, Sep 19, 2019 | 11:30 AM

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO

Title: New Analysis of EUR Probability Plots Yields Uncertainty Assessment & Better Type Wells.

Speaker: Randy Freeborn, Fellow at Aucerna.

Abstract: 

Evaluators use a lognormal probability distribution of estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) to predict the EUR that may be expected when drilling more wells. The EURs used in the distribution are determined by extrapolating the rate-time profiles of analogous wells; existing wells that are expected to behave like the planned wells. The range of expected values is captured by the difference or ratio of P_10 and P_90 EUR. Even with many analog wells, the analog distribution may differ from the population distribution, creating meaningful uncertainty usually absent when the only uncertainty is assumed to come from non-uniform sampling. This paper presents a statistical method to quantify the possible deviation between analog and population distributions and to construct type wells that incorporate this uncertainty.

The process uses Monte Carlo simulation to select EURs from known population distributions and create a sample distribution for each trial. The “known” population P_50 EURs and the P_10⁄P_90  ratios are random. The number of analog wells is equal to the number of wells (samples) selected for the trial.  

We record trials with near equal sample and analog distributions of both P_50  EURs and P_10⁄P_90  ratios. A scatter plot of P_50 versus P_10⁄P_90  ratio for this recorded subset of trials shows the range and frequency of possible population distributions. The EUR distribution of random samples taken from each population distribution in the subset will include the combined uncertainty of non-uniform sampling and an unknown true population. This distribution would be considered the most likely representation of the population.

Analog samples are properly positioned on the most likely population distribution to determine the probability for each analog sample. Reserves and type well construction follow from this distribution.

We test our observation that uncertainty is understated using recommendations in SPEE Monograph 3. With 60 wells having P_10⁄(P_90=4), the Monograph predicts a reliable value for the mean where reliable is stated as an “acceptable confidence interval” with a “target of greater than mean less 10 percent and a confidence interval of 90 percent”. At 80 percent confidence, our analysis obtains a variance range of -9 to +11 percent for the mean and +/- 20% for  P_50  and P_10⁄P_90 . We think variances this large are not reliable.

Probability distributions are used for building aggregation type wells (SPE 175967). As the number of planned wells increases (the number of wells in the aggregation), the P_10⁄P_90  ratio becomes smaller (less uncertainty). When the number of planned wells is in the hundreds, the P_10⁄P_90  ratio approaches one, there is limited uncertainty and that is not observed in practice. Employing the methods described in this paper, other uncertainty is captured and persists, even when the number of wells is large.

We find that analog distributions are unlikely to represent the population due to non-uniform sampling. The method proposed in this paper works to identify the uncertainty caused by non-uniform sampling, and to correct distributions to align with the risked population and obtain better evaluations.

Our objective is to obtain more certain probability distributions and to construct type wells that reflect the presence of uncertainty for drilling many wells in the future. Because the process is Monte Carlo based, errors in calculating EUR are also incorporated in the analysis, providing those errors are not systemic.

When statisticians construct probability or frequency distributions there is only one uncertain variable. The methods we describe in this paper identify the equivalent of a frequency distribution for two non-correlated variables that are not easily analyzed using conventional multivariate analysis.

Speaker Bio:

Randy Freeborn was a Distinguished Lecturer of the SPE about type wells and is a subject matter expert in empirical forecasting and related technology. Currently, he is a Fellow at Aucerna (formerly 3esi-Enersight & Palantir) where he is responsible for identifying and inventing engineering technology for inclusion in the company’s integrated reserve, asset management and planning software. He has been a professional engineer for 4 ½ decades and is a member of SPEE and SPE. Freeborn has prepared numerous technical papers for presentation at conferences, workshops and industry meetings. He has given guest lectures at the University of Houston and Texas A&M, and has been called as an expert witness.

Randy is an avid skier and bicycle commutes to work, even on cold, snowy Calgary days. His all-time favorite vacation spot is Grace Bay in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO

Denver SPE members who would like to pre-pay for the fall general meeting lineup may now do so through the purchase of a Jack England Pass.This $90 pass represents a 10% discount below normal admission rate and provides access to the September, October, November and December general meetings.  If a pass holder is unable to attend a pre-paid meeting, they can transfer the pass to another member by contacting denversection@spemail.org.

When: Thursday, September 27th, 2018 | 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM

Where: Halliburton Downtown Office | 1125 17th Street, Suite 1900, Denver, CO 

Title: Data Quality, How It Can Be Managed, and Where It Fits within the Overall Data Picture.

Speaker Bio:

Charles Ro has 18 years of experience in Oil and Gas, the capital markets, and finance. He has worked closely with C-level executives and has managerial experience, including P&L and budgetary responsibilities. His O&G career began on the land side, working with the most difficult data, broadening when he explored creating a software company which would integrate with all facets of upstream. This continued in working with an O&G analytics group, furthering his understanding of the complexities of decision making processes. His technical background includes building databases with reporting and financial analysis tools. He began his education as a Mechanical Engineering major and holds a BS in Statistics from the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana. 

When: Monday, October 8th - Tuesday October 9th, 2018 | 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Location: Schlumberger Training Room, 1675 Broadway 7th Floor Training Room, Denver, CO.  80202 

Cost -

Members: $1400

Non-Members: $1800

Registration Cutoff Date: September 25th, 2018 | 5:00 PM

Training Course Description

This course teaches the skills and understanding needed to forecast production and estimate reserves in unconventional (ultra-low permeability) oil and gas reservoirs. The course emphasizes “simple” production decline models appropriate for routine forecasting for hundreds of wells in short periods of time. Both tight oil and gas reservoirs, such as shales resources, are discussed.

Learning Level

Introductory

Course Length

1 or 2 Days

Why Attend?

There are various ways to forecast production and estimate the size of unconventional gas reservoirs. You’ll learn the strengths and weaknesses of each decline model and how to develop reliable forecasts in this course.

Who Should Attend

The course is for engineers and geoscientists who are interested in learning how to evaluate unconventional reservoirs.

Special Requirements

Attendees must bring a laptop to class. 

CEUs

1.6 CEUs (Continuing Education Units) are awarded for this 2-day course.

Cancellation Policy

All cancellations must be received no later than 14 days prior to the course start date. Cancellations made after the 14 day window will not be refunded.  Refunds will not be given due to no show situations.

Training sessions attached to SPE conferences and workshops follow the cancellation policies stated on the event information page.  Please check that page for specific cancellation information.

SPE reserves the right to cancel or re-schedule courses at will.  Notification of changes will be made as quickly as possible; please keep this in mind when arranging travel, as SPE is not responsible for any fees charged for cancelling or changing travel arrangements. 

We reserve the right to substitute course instructors as necessary.

Full Regional cancellation policies can be found at the “Cancellation Policy” link on the SPE Training Course Catalog page: http://www.spe.org/training/catalog.php.

Instructor

W. John Lee is Professor of petroleum engineering at Texas A&M University. He previously held the Hugh Roy and Lillie Cranz Cullen Distinguished University Chair at the University of Houston’s petroleum engineering program. Prior to this, Lee held the L.F. Peterson Chair and was Regent’s Professor of petroleum engineering at Texas A&M University. He was the former executive vice president of S.A. Holditch & Associates, where he specialized in reservoir engineering for unconventional gas reservoirs. He served as an Academic Engineering Fellow with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in Washington during 2007–2008, and was a principal architect of the new SEC rules for reporting oil and gas reserves.

Prior to beginning his career in academia, Lee managed Exxon’s Major Fields Study Group. He has written many technical papers and co-authored four SPE textbooks: Well Testing, Gas Reservoir Engineering, Pressure Transient Testing, and Applied Well Test Interpretation. He is also co-author of SPEE Monograph 4, Estimating Ultimate Recovery of Developed Wells in Low Permeability Reservoirs. Lee is an Honorary Member of SPE and a member of the US National Academy of Engineering. He received his BChE, MS, and PhD degrees in chemical engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Other Courses by Instructor

• Basic Pressure Transient Test Analysis
• Oil and Gas Reserves: The SEC Reporting Rules
• Production Forecast, Reserves Estimates and Reporting Rules for Unconventional Resources

When: Wednesday, Oct 17, 2018 | 11:30 AM

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO

Speaker: Steve Sawaryn, Consultant

Abstract: 

The consequences of an unplanned intersection with an existing well can range from financial loss to a catastrophic blow-out and loss of life. The process of well collision avoidance involves rules that determine the allowable well separation, the management of the associated directional planning and surveying activities and assurance and verification. The adoption of a particular minimum allowable separation rule, no matter how conservative, does not ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. Many other factors contribute, such as the level of compliance by office and rig personnel with collision avoidance procedures, and the completeness and correctness of the directional database. All these factors are connected.

This is not a new subject, but current guidance is disparate, company specific and occasionally contradictory. As a result, the guidance can be difficult to understand and implement. Standardisation is required. This standardisation has been the goal of the SPE Wellbore Positioning Technical Section (WPTS). The resulting recommendations are a culmination of the work and consensus of industry experts from both operators and service companies.The effects of a standardised separation rule and attendant practices are far reaching. They influence slot separations, trajectories, drilling practices, surveying programme and well shut-in, with commercial as well as HSE implications.

Although collisions are rare, investigation of 19 anonymous collision events suggests they occur more frequently than formal accounts would lead us to believe. Common themes across these events can be identified and these lead to a conclusion that all such collisions are avoidable.

Speaker Bio:

Steve Sawaryn is an independent drilling engineering consultant specialising in drilling systems. During the previous 35 years he held a variety of national and international posts in BP’s Drilling Engineering Division in drilling operations, consultancy and projects. He is also a chartered engineer and fellow of the British Computer Soc. Sawaryn holds PhD and M.A. degrees from Cambridge U. He has authored more than 35 SPE papers and has served on a number of SPE committees. He received the 2010 SPE North-Sea Region Technical Award for Drilling Engineering and now chairs the SPE Wellbore Positioning Technical Section Collision Avoidance sub-committee.

When: October 31, 2018 | 06:00 P.M.

Where: Top Golf Centennial | 10601 E Easter Ave, Centennial, CO.

RSVP Link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2018-spe-yp-topgolf-halloween-costume-party-tickets-50375148425​

When: Wednesday, Nov 28, 2018 | 11:30 AM

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO

Speaker: Robert (Bob) D. Barree, (PhD., P.E.) President of Barree & Associates

Abstract: 

Most unconventional reservoirs are developed with pad drilling of multiple, closely spaced horizontal wells which are then fracture stimulated with closely spaced fracture initiation points.  These wells, fractures, and fields are subject to several sources of interference during the drilling, completion, and production phases of development.  This talk discusses various forms of interference and their impact on economic development and resource recovery.

Speaker Bio:

Robert (Bob) D. Barree (PhD., P.E.) is president and principal investigator of Barree & Associates.  Previously Dr. Barree was a Senior Technical Consultant at Marathon's Petroleum Technology Center.  He has been involved in the development of hydraulic fracture design simulators and fracture diagnostic procedures for nearly 40 years, and is the author of more than 70 technical publications.  He has served as SPE Distinguished Lecturer on the topic of new philosophies in hydraulic fracturing, and has served on many technical committees for SPE annual and regional meetings, Applied Technology Workshops, and Forum Series.  He is a registered Professional Engineer in the State of Colorado and holds degrees in Petroleum Engineering (B.S.) from the Pennsylvania State University and Colorado School of Mines (PhD).

When: Wednesday, Dec 12, 2018 | 11:30 AM

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO

Speaker: Lori Dalrymple, CEO of Architecture of Communication, (AOC, LLC)

Abstract: 

The Oil & Gas Industry is in a downturn. In the last two years, over 300,000 jobs have been lost or eliminated through attrition or termination. Profitability is limited. Some of the smaller companies have closed or face bankruptcy. Projects are being delayed or canceled.

These are difficult times for the industry. Even though the price of oil is slowly rising, and the industry seems to be rebounding, the stability is fragile. Recent studies show that 85% of job success comes from having well-developed soft skills, and only 15% of job success comes from technical skills and knowledge.

Soft skills are Interpersonal Relationship Skills. In the Oil & Gas industry today, these skills are more critical than ever. Organizations (and workers) are struggling to find meaningful ways to remain competitive and be productive. Teamwork, leadership and communication are underpinned by soft skills development. Since each is an essential element for organizational and personal success, developing these skills is crucial.

Soft Skills and Technical Skills work together synergistically.  Many major organizations such as SPE, AIME, & AAES have developed soft skills committees. Major companies, such as OMV, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Exxon, Nalco Champion, and many others have incorporated soft skills into their employees training.

Take Home Message: Soft Skills Help You Succeed

Speaker Bio:

Lori Dalrymple is the CEO of Architecture of Communication, (AOC, LLC).  She developed a Global Soft Skills Training Program for the Oil & Gas Industry.  Her expertise in Soft Skills training helps Professionals and University Students to achieve higher levels of interpersonal communication, both internal and external. She has been working as a subject matter expert in Soft Skills training since 2005, and is a member of SPE and a standing member of the Soft Skills Committee.

Lori holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Communications and Performance, an Associate’s degree in Sales & Marketing, and is currently pursuing her Master’s degree in Multicultural Psychology, along with University studies in geology, and the sciences to increase her technical understanding.  She holds multiple certifications in motivational training as well as Praxis Global and SPE Workshops on Oil & Gas. Lori volunteers as an SPE representative to teach Soft Skills to Petroleum Engineering Departments at Universities around the globe.

When: Wednesday, Jan 19, 2019 | 11:30 AM

Where: Denver Athletic Club | 1325 Glenarm Pl., Denver, CO